Riding profile

Paris — 16ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 16ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Paris — 16ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 62% vote share, against 15% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sarah LEGRAIN

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
46.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 61.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 15.2%
  • RN and allies 13.3%
  • LR and allies 5.7%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 1.4%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereParis — 16ème circonscription 61.7%15.2%13.3%5.7%
Provincial averageParis 44.5% +17.2 27.8% −12.6 15.0% −1.7 9.3% −3.7
National averageFrance 29.5% +32.2 20.6% −5.4 36.0% −22.6 12.2% −6.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+46.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sarah LEGRAIN Elected Left (NFP) 32,422 62.5 —
Elsa PARIENTE Centre (Ensemble) 10,154 19.6 —
Christèle DE FROMONT DE BOUAILLE RN and allies 4,829 9.3 —
Marie TOUBIANA LR and allies 2,291 4.4 —
Victor HUGUET Greens 1,003 1.9 —
Cecile FISCHER RN and allies 506 1.0 —
Nordine EL-MARBATI Far left 409 0.8 —
Marie-Noëlle BLONDEL Centre (Ensemble) 287 0.6 —
Hakima KHELFA Others 1 0.0 —
Hortense VILLENAVE Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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