Riding profile

Paris — 15ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 15ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Paris — 15ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 64% vote share, against 16% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Danielle SIMONNET

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
47.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 63.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 15.8%
  • RN and allies 13.0%
  • LR and allies 4.8%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereParis — 15ème circonscription 63.6%15.8%13.0%4.8%
Provincial averageParis 44.5% +19.1 27.8% −11.9 15.0% −2.0 9.3% −4.5
National averageFrance 29.5% +34.2 20.6% −4.7 36.0% −23.0 12.2% −7.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+47.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Danielle SIMONNET Elected Left (NFP) 23,103 41.9 —
Céline VERZELETTI Left (NFP) 12,619 22.9 —
Mohamad GASSAMA Centre (Ensemble) 8,948 16.2 —
Clotilde GUERY RN and allies 4,969 9.0 —
François-Marie DIDIER LR and allies 1,968 3.6 —
Philippe ARAGON Centre (Ensemble) 1,634 3.0 —
Aliou POURCHET Centre (Ensemble) 943 1.7 —
Christian GUILLOT RN and allies 558 1.0 —
Arnaud CHARVILLAT Far left 275 0.5 —
Pierre AUGROS Far left 128 0.2 —
Laurent CHRÉTIEN MARQUET Others 32 0.1 —
Audrey LEPAGE Sovereignists 1 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next