Riding profile

Paris — 8ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 8ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Paris — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 50% vote share, against 25% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Eva SAS

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 49.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 25.3%
  • RN and allies 15.7%
  • LR and allies 6.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereParis — 8ème circonscription 49.7%25.3%15.7%6.5%
Provincial averageParis 44.5% +5.2 27.8% −2.5 15.0% +0.7 9.3% −2.9
National averageFrance 29.5% +20.2 20.6% +4.8 36.0% −20.3 12.2% −5.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+24.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Eva SAS Elected Left (NFP) 30,923 50.7 —
David OUZILOU Centre (Ensemble) 17,305 28.4 —
Vanessa VICENTE RN and allies 7,084 11.6 —
Florent BRUNETTI LR and allies 3,210 5.3 —
Pierre-Louis GISCARD D'ESTAING Centre (Ensemble) 960 1.6 —
Jannick TRUNKENWALD RN and allies 688 1.1 —
Anne BERNON Far left 317 0.5 —
Christine VIAL KAYSER Centre (Ensemble) 280 0.5 —
Camille ADOUE Far left 176 0.3 —
Manuel LUTZ Others 19 0.0 —
Gwenolé SELLES Far left 0 0.0 —
N'Cho Xavier LAWSON-AGBAN Left (NFP) 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next