Riding profile
Val-de-Marne — 8ème circonscription
The question
Val-de-Marne — 8ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?
Editorial read
Val-de-Marne — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-de-Marne, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 43% vote share, against 34% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Michel HERBILLON
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.8
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| LR and allies | Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVal-de-Marne — 8ème circonscription | 43.0% | 34.3% | 20.0% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageVal-de-Marne | 12.6% +30.4 | 44.0% −9.7 | 22.9% −3.0 | 2.0% −0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2% +30.8 | 29.5% +4.8 | 36.0% −16.0 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel HERBILLON Elected | LR and allies | 24,722 | 44.1 | — |
| Joao MARTINS PEREIRA | Left (NFP) | 20,658 | 36.9 | — |
| Raphaël TURPIN | RN and allies | 9,085 | 16.2 | — |
| Olivier BUCLIN | RN and allies | 1,009 | 1.8 | — |
| Amandine CHEYNS | Far left | 546 | 1.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Paris — 8ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Val-de-Marne — 6ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Val-de-Marne — 9ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-Saint-Denis — 7ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Val-de-Marne — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Val-de-Marne — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Toss-upOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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