Riding profile

Val-de-Marne — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-de-Marne

The question

Val-de-Marne — 9ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Val-de-Marne — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-de-Marne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 57% vote share, against 22% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Isabelle SANTIAGO

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
34.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 57.4%
  • RN and allies 22.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 9.8%
  • LR and allies 5.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 1.6%
  • Far left 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVal-de-Marne — 9ème circonscription 57.4%22.4%9.8%5.3%
Provincial averageVal-de-Marne 44.0% +13.4 22.9% −0.5 19.9% −10.1 12.6% −7.4
National averageFrance 29.5% +27.9 36.0% −13.6 20.6% −10.8 12.2% −7.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+34.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Isabelle SANTIAGO Elected Left (NFP) 19,548 58.1 —
Wenqi CUI RN and allies 6,083 18.1 —
Noémie AMIROU Centre (Ensemble) 4,964 14.8 —
Jérôme AUBERTIN LR and allies 1,353 4.0 —
Christophe JAUBERT Greens 730 2.2 —
Ambroise RAMASSAMY RN and allies 353 1.1 —
Marie VIEIRA Far left 353 1.1 —
Véronique DUCANDAS Far left 184 0.6 —
Sophie ORTOLE RN and allies 82 0.2 —
Luc CHEVALLIER Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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