Riding profile

Val-de-Marne — 11ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-de-Marne

The question

Val-de-Marne — 11ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Val-de-Marne — 11ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-de-Marne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 56% vote share, against 18% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sophie TAILLÉ-POLIAN

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
38.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 56.3%
  • RN and allies 18.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 14.9%
  • LR and allies 7.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVal-de-Marne — 11ème circonscription 56.3%18.3%14.9%7.5%
Provincial averageVal-de-Marne 44.0% +12.3 22.9% −4.6 19.9% −5.0 12.6% −5.2
National averageFrance 29.5% +26.8 36.0% −17.7 20.6% −5.7 12.2% −4.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+38.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sophie TAILLÉ-POLIAN Elected Left (NFP) 24,447 57.4 —
Nathalie PICOT Centre (Ensemble) 8,494 19.9 —
Sylvie BOUCHOT RN and allies 6,093 14.3 —
Cédric RIVET-SOW LR and allies 1,504 3.5 —
Charles MARIAUD LR and allies 1,167 2.7 —
Lydie COUSTY RN and allies 452 1.1 —
Christine SAMSON Far left 319 0.8 —
Sébastien SUGRANES Far left 146 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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