Riding profile

Paris — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 9ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Paris — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 51% vote share, against 20% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sandrine ROUSSEAU

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 51.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 19.6%
  • RN and allies 15.9%
  • LR and allies 9.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.2%
  • Greens 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereParis — 9ème circonscription 51.4%19.6%15.9%9.4%
Provincial averageParis 44.5% +6.9 27.8% −8.2 15.0% +0.8 9.3%
National averageFrance 29.5% +21.9 20.6% −1.0 36.0% −20.1 12.2% −2.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+31.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sandrine ROUSSEAU Elected Left (NFP) 26,020 52.1 —
Pegah MALEK-AHMADI Centre (Ensemble) 11,550 23.1 —
Marie-Josée BOULAIRE RN and allies 5,733 11.5 —
Jean-Baptiste OLIVIER LR and allies 2,290 4.6 —
Elisabeth STIBBE LR and allies 1,495 3.0 —
Jade FARRAN Centre (Ensemble) 678 1.4 —
Marion BOTTOU RN and allies 611 1.2 —
Julian ROZENBERG Greens 565 1.1 —
Florence Jacqueline Chantal BEDAGUE Far left 396 0.8 —
Sophie CHEN LR and allies 269 0.5 —
Blandine CHAUVEL Far left 251 0.5 —
Marc ELY RN and allies 55 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next