Riding profile

Paris — 11ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 11ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Paris — 11ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 43% vote share, against 31% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Céline HERVIEU

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
11.9
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 43.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 31.1%
  • RN and allies 14.6%
  • LR and allies 8.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereParis — 11ème circonscription 43.0%31.1%14.6%8.3%
Provincial averageParis 44.5% −1.6 27.8% +3.3 15.0% −0.5 9.3% −1.1
National averageFrance 29.5% +13.5 20.6% +10.5 36.0% −21.4 12.2% −3.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Céline HERVIEU Elected Left (NFP) 24,195 43.7 —
Maud GATEL Centre (Ensemble) 19,295 34.9 —
Lindsay FISCHER RN and allies 5,632 10.2 —
Jean-François ALEXANDRE LR and allies 3,888 7.0 —
Anne-Marie TARANNE RN and allies 749 1.4 —
Julie LASNE Greens 715 1.3 —
Julien VICK Centre (Ensemble) 387 0.7 —
Marie CAMP Centre (Ensemble) 259 0.5 —
Laurent VINCIGUERRA Far left 223 0.4 —
Iwan CLEMENTE Others 25 0.1 —
Rose LAVIRE Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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