Riding profile

Hauts-de-Seine — 11ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Hauts-de-Seine

The question

Hauts-de-Seine — 11ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Hauts-de-Seine — 11ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Hauts-de-Seine, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 50% vote share, against 27% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Aurélien SAINTOUL

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 50.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.3%
  • RN and allies 17.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Greens 1.0%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies Others
HereHauts-de-Seine — 11ème circonscription 50.1%27.3%17.5%2.0%
Provincial averageHauts-de-Seine 35.9% +14.2 32.1% −4.9 19.2% −1.7 2.1% −0.1
National averageFrance 29.5% +20.6 20.6% +6.7 36.0% −18.4 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+22.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Aurélien SAINTOUL Elected Left (NFP) 25,031 50.1 —
Laurianne ROSSI Centre (Ensemble) 15,036 30.1 —
Juliette CHATELAIN RN and allies 6,737 13.5 —
Eric ROUX Centre (Ensemble) 1,039 2.1 —
Renaud COUZIN Greens 797 1.6 —
Suzanne BACLET RN and allies 491 1.0 —
Franck ROLLOT Far left 281 0.6 —
Olivier GARDENT Left (NFP) 196 0.4 —
Xavier CHIARELLI Far left 161 0.3 —
Philippe PONGE Left (NFP) 154 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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