Riding profile

Paris — 13ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 13ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Paris — 13ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 36% vote share, against 34% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

David AMIEL

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
60%
Mean margin (pts)
2.5
P(close race)
81%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 36.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 33.9%
  • RN and allies 18.7%
  • LR and allies 7.4%
  • Others 2.4%
  • Greens 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereParis — 13ème circonscription 36.4%33.9%18.7%7.4%
Provincial averageParis 44.5% −8.2 27.8% +6.1 15.0% +3.6 9.3% −2.0
National averageFrance 29.5% +6.9 20.6% +13.3 36.0% −17.3 12.2% −4.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David AMIEL Elected Centre (Ensemble) 21,698 38.9 —
Aminata NIAKATÉ Left (NFP) 20,722 37.1 —
Sophie ROSTAN RN and allies 7,818 14.0 —
Frédéric JACQUOT LR and allies 3,419 6.1 —
Victor CHRZANOWSKI RN and allies 824 1.5 —
Ingrid ALLORANT Greens 811 1.4 —
Annie POUPON Others 234 0.4 —
Corinne ROETHLISBERGER Far left 226 0.4 —
Anne-Laure DELINOT RN and allies 85 0.1 —
Corinne PAINE Sovereignists 7 0.0 —
Francis SANDO Sovereignists 1 0.0 —
Anne OUDIOU Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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