Riding profile

Paris — 14ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Paris

The question

Paris — 14ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Paris — 14ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Paris, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 43% vote share, against 23% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Benjamin HADDAD

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 43.3%
  • RN and allies 22.6%
  • LR and allies 18.8%
  • Left (NFP) 13.1%
  • Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP)
HereParis — 14ème circonscription 43.3%22.6%18.8%13.1%
Provincial averageParis 27.8% +15.5 15.0% +7.6 9.3% +9.5 44.5% −31.4
National averageFrance 20.6% +22.7 36.0% −13.4 12.2% +6.6 29.5% −16.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+20.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Benjamin HADDAD Elected Centre (Ensemble) 26,351 47.7 —
Patrick DRAY LR and allies 9,775 17.7 —
Louis PIQUET RN and allies 9,702 17.6 —
Hugo ROTA Left (NFP) 7,693 13.9 —
Thomas CULERRIER RN and allies 1,177 2.1 —
Eric MOLINARI Centre (Ensemble) 414 0.8 —
Marie BOURDY Far left 123 0.2 —
Sacha Élie ZAOUATI Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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