Riding profile

Hauts-de-Seine — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Hauts-de-Seine

The question

Hauts-de-Seine — 9ème circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Hauts-de-Seine — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Hauts-de-Seine, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 42% vote share, against 21% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Stéphane SÉJOURNÉ

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 21.3
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Centre (Ensemble) 41.9%
Left (NFP) 20.5%
RN and allies 18.7%
LR and allies 16.5%
Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Centre (Ensemble)	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	LR and allies
HereHauts-de-Seine — 9ème circonscription	41.9%	20.5%	18.7%	16.5%
Provincial averageHauts-de-Seine	32.1% +9.7	35.9% −15.4	19.2% −0.5	16.9% −0.4
National averageFrance	20.6% +21.3	29.5% −9.0	36.0% −17.3	12.2% +4.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Centre (Ensemble)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+21.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Stéphane SÉJOURNÉ Elected	Centre (Ensemble)	21,593	46.1	—
Pauline RAPILLY-FERNIOT	Left (NFP)	10,024	21.4	—
Virginie MATHOT	LR and allies	7,108	15.2	—
Julia CARRASCO	RN and allies	6,528	13.9	—
Joseph SAMOUN	RN and allies	840	1.8	—
Hazrije MUSTAFIC	Centre (Ensemble)	459	1.0	—
Anne-Laure CHAUDON	Far left	225	0.5	—
Thierry NARBONI	LR and allies	92	0.2	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next