Riding profile

Val-de-Marne — 6ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-de-Marne

The question

Val-de-Marne — 6ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to Left (NFP)?

Editorial read

Val-de-Marne — 6ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-de-Marne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 40% vote share, against 32% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Guillaume GOUFFIER VALENTE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
95%
Mean margin (pts)
7.5
P(close race)
10%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 39.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 32.4%
  • RN and allies 18.8%
  • LR and allies 5.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 1.1%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereVal-de-Marne — 6ème circonscription 39.9%32.4%18.8%5.1%
Provincial averageVal-de-Marne 44.0% −4.1 19.9% +12.5 22.9% −4.1 12.6% −7.5
National averageFrance 29.5% +10.4 20.6% +11.9 36.0% −17.2 12.2% −7.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
May BOUHADA Left (NFP) 24,417 40.6 —
Guillaume GOUFFIER VALENTE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 22,464 37.4 —
Martina GABELICA RN and allies 8,347 13.9 —
Victor GAONACH LR and allies 2,325 3.9 —
Rémy LONGETTI RN and allies 1,099 1.8 —
Tony RENAULT Greens 979 1.6 —
Véronique HUNAUT Far left 290 0.5 —
Murielle MORAND Far left 176 0.3 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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