Riding profile

Seine-Saint-Denis — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-Saint-Denis

The question

Seine-Saint-Denis — 9ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Seine-Saint-Denis — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Saint-Denis, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 62% vote share, against 18% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Aurélie TROUVÉ

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
44.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 62.1%
  • RN and allies 18.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 10.0%
  • LR and allies 5.6%
  • Far left 2.2%
  • Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereSeine-Saint-Denis — 9ème circonscription 62.1%18.1%10.0%5.6%
Provincial averageSeine-Saint-Denis 58.8% +3.3 19.9% −1.8 7.0% +3.0 11.9% −6.3
National averageFrance 29.5% +32.6 36.0% −17.9 20.6% −10.6 12.2% −6.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+44.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Aurélie TROUVÉ Elected Left (NFP) 29,935 63.2 —
Clara BOURASSIN RN and allies 7,156 15.1 —
Manon CHAUMETTE Centre (Ensemble) 7,119 15.0 —
Robenson PIERRE LR and allies 2,073 4.4 —
Jean-Paul BUROT Far left 681 1.4 —
Christel KEISER Far left 407 0.9 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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