Riding profile

Seine-Saint-Denis — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-Saint-Denis

The question

Seine-Saint-Denis — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Seine-Saint-Denis — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Saint-Denis, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 53% vote share, against 24% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Aly DIOUARA

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 53.4%
  • LR and allies 24.4%
  • RN and allies 19.4%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) LR and allies RN and allies Others
HereSeine-Saint-Denis — 5ème circonscription 53.4%24.4%19.4%1.9%
Provincial averageSeine-Saint-Denis 58.8% −5.4 11.9% +12.6 19.9% −0.5 2.2% −0.3
National averageFrance 29.5% +23.9 12.2% +12.2 36.0% −16.6 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+28.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Aly DIOUARA Elected Left (NFP) 12,141 33.1 —
Aude LAGARDE LR and allies 9,006 24.6 —
Raquel GARRIDO Left (NFP) 8,672 23.6 —
Eric KOZELKO RN and allies 6,382 17.4 —
Rodolphe FEGER Far left 359 1.0 —
Markeins PIERRE Left (NFP) 115 0.3 —
Hélène BALLOUHEY Far left 0 0.0 —
Tatiana BOUTIGNON Others 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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