Riding profile

Seine-Saint-Denis — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-Saint-Denis

The question

Seine-Saint-Denis — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Seine-Saint-Denis — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Saint-Denis, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 68% vote share, against 19% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Soumya BOUROUAHA

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 48.2
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Left (NFP) 67.6%
RN and allies 19.4%
LR and allies 6.8%
Others 3.2%
Centre (Ensemble) 1.9%
Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	LR and allies	Others
HereSeine-Saint-Denis — 4ème circonscription	67.6%	19.4%	6.8%	3.2%
Provincial averageSeine-Saint-Denis	58.8% +8.8	19.9% −0.4	11.9% −5.0	2.2% +1.0
National averageFrance	29.5% +38.1	36.0% −16.5	12.2% −5.4	3.9% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+48.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Soumya BOUROUAHA Elected	Left (NFP)	15,760	44.5	—
Mohamed AWAD	Left (NFP)	8,462	23.9	—
Colette LÉVÊQUE	RN and allies	5,839	16.5	—
Hamza RABEHI	Centre (Ensemble)	2,429	6.9	—
Micaël VAZ	LR and allies	1,982	5.6	—
Marlène LEY	Far left	344	1.0	—
Amirdine FAROUK	Others	335	0.9	—
Sonia ATTIG	Left (NFP)	105	0.3	—
Omar MIRALI	Others	102	0.3	—
Matthieu BELIN	Far left	25	0.1	—
Virginie POTTIER	LR and allies	16	0.1	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next