Riding profile

Seine-Saint-Denis — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-Saint-Denis

The question

Seine-Saint-Denis — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Seine-Saint-Denis — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Saint-Denis, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 65% vote share, against 15% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Éric COQUEREL

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 50.0
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Left (NFP) 64.5%
RN and allies 14.5%
Centre (Ensemble) 9.8%
LR and allies 5.6%
Others 2.1%
Far left 1.7%
Greens 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	Centre (Ensemble)	LR and allies
HereSeine-Saint-Denis — 1ère circonscription	64.5%	14.5%	9.8%	5.6%
Provincial averageSeine-Saint-Denis	58.8% +5.8	19.9% −5.3	7.0% +2.8	11.9% −6.3
National averageFrance	29.5% +35.1	36.0% −21.4	20.6% −10.7	12.2% −6.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+50.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Éric COQUEREL Elected	Left (NFP)	27,298	65.3	—
Jean-Pierre MONFILS	Centre (Ensemble)	6,185	14.8	—
Julien GRAZIOLI	RN and allies	4,803	11.5	—
François PEGUILLET	LR and allies	1,208	2.9	—
Gersende LE MAIRE	Greens	878	2.1	—
Nabil BOUARD	LR and allies	618	1.5	—
Alain AUBRY	Far left	543	1.3	—
Paul UHALDE	Far left	204	0.5	—
Emmanuel BILONGO MAMBWENI	Others	62	0.1	—
Gaëll FALISZ	Far left	18	0.0	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next