Riding profile

Val-d'Oise — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-d'Oise

The question

Val-d'Oise — 3ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Val-d'Oise — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-d'Oise, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 35% vote share, against 32% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Emmanuel MAUREL

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
79%
Mean margin (pts)
3.0
P(close race)
41%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 34.9%
  • RN and allies 31.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 18.6%
  • LR and allies 8.8%
  • Others 3.6%
  • Greens 1.4%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVal-d'Oise — 3ème circonscription 34.9%31.9%18.6%8.8%
Provincial averageVal-d'Oise 39.7% −4.8 29.6% +2.4 17.3% +1.3 10.4% −1.6
National averageFrance 29.5% +5.4 36.0% −4.0 20.6% −2.0 12.2% −3.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emmanuel MAUREL Elected Left (NFP) 22,742 35.6 —
Kimberley LELAIDIER RN and allies 17,608 27.6 —
Cécile RILHAC Centre (Ensemble) 15,013 23.5 —
Laetitia VINCENT LR and allies 4,816 7.5 —
Samira HERBAL Greens 1,290 2.0 —
Laetitia GUÉBIN Others 1,046 1.6 —
Alexandre SIMONNOT RN and allies 837 1.3 —
Juan MUNOZ Far left 468 0.7 —
Daniel BLASER Far left 7 0.0 —
Samira BELMOKHTAR Left (NFP) 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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