Riding profile

Val-d'Oise — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-d'Oise

The question

Val-d'Oise — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Val-d'Oise — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-d'Oise, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 34% vote share, against 33% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Ayda HADIZADEH

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
65%
Mean margin (pts)
1.5
P(close race)
69%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 34.1%
  • Left (NFP) 32.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 20.3%
  • LR and allies 7.5%
  • Others 4.8%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVal-d'Oise — 2ème circonscription 34.1%32.5%20.3%7.5%
Provincial averageVal-d'Oise 29.6% +4.5 39.7% −7.2 17.3% +3.0 10.4% −2.9
National averageFrance 36.0% −1.9 29.5% +3.1 20.6% −0.3 12.2% −4.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ayda HADIZADEH Elected Left (NFP) 17,221 33.5 —
Nadejda REMY RN and allies 15,544 30.2 —
Guillaume VUILLETET Centre (Ensemble) 13,044 25.4 —
Frédéric PAIN LR and allies 3,214 6.3 —
Brahim OUBAIROUK Others 818 1.6 —
Alvin IVANAJ Others 621 1.2 —
Philippe CHANZY RN and allies 529 1.0 —
Éric CASSAN Far left 456 0.9 —
Danièle LESSAINT Sovereignists 6 0.0 —
Stephane GAULTIER Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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