Riding profile
Oise — 3ème circonscription
The question
Oise — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Oise — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Oise, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 30% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alexandre SABATOU
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOise — 3ème circonscription | 45.9% | 30.4% | 13.9% | 5.5% |
| Provincial averageOise | 47.9% −2.1 | 21.0% +9.4 | 11.9% +1.9 | 18.6% −13.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +9.9 | 29.5% +0.9 | 20.6% −6.7 | 12.2% −6.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre SABATOU Elected | RN and allies | 19,487 | 43.1 | — |
| Amadou KA | Left (NFP) | 14,149 | 31.3 | — |
| Pascal BOIS | Centre (Ensemble) | 8,556 | 18.9 | — |
| Marie FERREIRA | LR and allies | 1,931 | 4.3 | — |
| Nadège LEGRIS | Others | 573 | 1.3 | — |
| Roland SZPIRKO | Far left | 522 | 1.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Val-d'Oise — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Val-d'Oise — 4ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) CompetitiveOpen →
- Val-d'Oise — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) CompetitiveOpen →
- Val-d'Oise — 7ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Val-d'Oise — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Oise — 7ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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