Riding profile

Oise — 7ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Oise

The question

Oise — 7ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Oise — 7ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Oise, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 26% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

David MAGNIER

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 44.1%
  • Left (NFP) 26.3%
  • LR and allies 22.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 3.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.2%
  • Sovereignists 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereOise — 7ème circonscription 44.1%26.3%22.6%3.2%
Provincial averageOise 47.9% −3.9 21.0% +5.3 18.6% +4.1 11.9% −8.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +8.1 29.5% −3.2 12.2% +10.4 20.6% −17.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+17.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David MAGNIER Elected RN and allies 19,769 40.4 —
Loïc PEN Left (NFP) 13,289 27.2 —
Maxime MINOT LR and allies 10,519 21.5 —
Ophélie VAN ELSUWE Centre (Ensemble) 4,006 8.2 —
Agnès DINGIVAL Far left 615 1.3 —
Florence ITALIANI RN and allies 415 0.8 —
Thomas MONGIRAUD Sovereignists 278 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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