Riding profile

Oise — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Oise

The question

Oise — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Oise — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Oise, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 50% vote share, against 26% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Claire MARAIS-BEUIL

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 49.9%
  • LR and allies 25.7%
  • Left (NFP) 16.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 4.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 0.8%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereOise — 1ère circonscription 49.9%25.7%16.9%4.0%
Provincial averageOise 47.9% +1.9 18.6% +7.2 21.0% −4.1 11.9% −7.9
National averageFrance 36.0% +13.9 12.2% +13.5 29.5% −12.6 20.6% −16.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+24.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Claire MARAIS-BEUIL Elected RN and allies 24,621 46.2 —
Victor HABERT-DASSAULT LR and allies 13,049 24.5 —
Roxane LUNDY Left (NFP) 9,402 17.6 —
Matys GUTIERREZ Centre (Ensemble) 4,062 7.6 —
Axelle LATRASSE Greens 749 1.4 —
Souhail AOUAD Centre (Ensemble) 728 1.4 —
Jean-Philippe FRUITIER Far left 348 0.7 —
Norbert DEPRESLES RN and allies 339 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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