Riding profile
Somme — 4ème circonscription
The question
Somme — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Somme — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Somme, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 52% vote share, against 16% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jean-Philippe TANGUY
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 36.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSomme — 4ème circonscription | 52.4% | 16.2% | 14.6% | 13.4% |
| Provincial averageSomme | 47.9% +4.5 | 20.9% −4.7 | 12.4% +2.3 | 15.5% −2.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +16.4 | 29.5% −13.3 | 12.2% +2.4 | 20.6% −7.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Philippe TANGUY Elected | RN and allies | 28,559 | 49.6 | — |
| Anthony GEST | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,631 | 18.5 | — |
| Elodie HÉREN | Left (NFP) | 9,789 | 17.0 | — |
| Vincent JACQUES | LR and allies | 7,759 | 13.5 | — |
| Guy VITOUX | Far left | 820 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Somme — 2ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Somme — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Oise — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Pas-de-Calais — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Somme — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Somme — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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