Riding profile

Somme — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Somme

The question

Somme — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Somme — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Somme, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 52% vote share, against 16% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jean-Philippe TANGUY

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
36.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 52.4%
  • Left (NFP) 16.2%
  • LR and allies 14.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 13.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereSomme — 4ème circonscription 52.4%16.2%14.6%13.4%
Provincial averageSomme 47.9% +4.5 20.9% −4.7 12.4% +2.3 15.5% −2.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +16.4 29.5% −13.3 12.2% +2.4 20.6% −7.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+36.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean-Philippe TANGUY Elected RN and allies 28,559 49.6
Anthony GEST Centre (Ensemble) 10,631 18.5
Elodie HÉREN Left (NFP) 9,789 17.0
Vincent JACQUES LR and allies 7,759 13.5
Guy VITOUX Far left 820 1.4
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next