Riding profile
Somme — 1ère circonscription
The question
Somme — 1ère circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Somme — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Somme, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 43% vote share, against 33% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
François RUFFIN
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 94%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.5
- P(close race)
- 12%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSomme — 1ère circonscription | 43.5% | 33.0% | 19.1% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageSomme | 47.9% −4.4 | 20.9% +12.1 | 15.5% +3.6 | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +7.5 | 29.5% +3.5 | 20.6% −1.5 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathalie RIBEIRO BILLET | RN and allies | 21,413 | 40.7 | — |
| François RUFFIN Elected | Left (NFP) | 17,850 | 33.9 | — |
| Albane BRANLANT | Centre (Ensemble) | 11,933 | 22.7 | — |
| Bruno DUMONT | Centre (Ensemble) | 776 | 1.5 | — |
| Jean-Patrick BAUDRY | Far left | 653 | 1.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Somme — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Somme — 2ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Somme — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Pas-de-Calais — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Oise — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Pas-de-Calais — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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