Riding profile

Pas-de-Calais — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pas-de-Calais

The question

Pas-de-Calais — 4ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Pas-de-Calais — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pas-de-Calais, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 46% vote share, against 27% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Philippe FAIT

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.8
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 45.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.1%
  • Left (NFP) 13.9%
  • LR and allies 10.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HerePas-de-Calais — 4ème circonscription 45.9%27.1%13.9%10.4%
Provincial averagePas-de-Calais 53.2% −7.3 13.9% +13.2 20.8% −6.9 9.6% +0.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +9.9 20.6% +6.5 29.5% −15.6 12.2% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+18.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Benoît DOLLE RN and allies 25,286 42.3 —
Philippe FAIT Elected Centre (Ensemble) 18,309 30.7 —
Blandine DRAIN Left (NFP) 8,794 14.7 —
Clémence LAMBERT LR and allies 5,501 9.2 —
Jérémy DURAND Centre (Ensemble) 935 1.6 —
Fanny JUDEK RN and allies 445 0.8 —
Dominique HERICOURT Far left 442 0.7 —
Jean-Marc SERGENT Others 6 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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