Riding profile

Pas-de-Calais — 8ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pas-de-Calais

The question

Pas-de-Calais — 8ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Pas-de-Calais — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pas-de-Calais, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 50% vote share, against 31% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Auguste EVRARD

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 50.3%
  • Left (NFP) 31.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 11.8%
  • Others 3.7%
  • Far left 1.9%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HerePas-de-Calais — 8ème circonscription 50.3%31.1%11.8%3.7%
Provincial averagePas-de-Calais 53.2% −2.9 20.8% +10.2 13.9% −2.1 2.2% +1.5
National averageFrance 36.0% +14.3 29.5% +1.6 20.6% −8.8 3.9% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+19.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Auguste EVRARD Elected RN and allies 27,164 46.5 —
Bertrand PETIT Left (NFP) 18,697 32.0 —
Benoît POTTERIE Centre (Ensemble) 9,824 16.8 —
Hervé RUFFIN Far left 1,199 2.0 —
Alain ATASSI Others 984 1.7 —
Jérémie WEBER RN and allies 617 1.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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