Riding profile

Pas-de-Calais — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pas-de-Calais

The question

Pas-de-Calais — 9ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Pas-de-Calais — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pas-de-Calais, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 52% vote share, against 16% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Caroline PARMENTIER

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
35.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 51.6%
  • Left (NFP) 16.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 14.7%
  • LR and allies 14.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HerePas-de-Calais — 9ème circonscription 51.6%16.1%14.7%14.4%
Provincial averagePas-de-Calais 53.2% −1.6 20.8% −4.8 13.9% +0.8 9.6% +4.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +15.6 29.5% −13.4 20.6% −5.8 12.2% +2.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+35.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Caroline PARMENTIER Elected RN and allies 25,674 48.9 —
Hadrien COISNE Centre (Ensemble) 10,394 19.8 —
Estelle HARREMOES Left (NFP) 8,881 16.9 —
Hakim ELAZOUZI LR and allies 6,985 13.3 —
Anne-Marie DEFLANDRE Far left 624 1.2 —
Julien GUAQUIER LR and allies 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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