Riding profile

Pas-de-Calais — 12ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pas-de-Calais

The question

Pas-de-Calais — 12ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Pas-de-Calais — 12ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pas-de-Calais, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 62% vote share, against 20% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Bruno BILDE

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
41.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 61.9%
  • Left (NFP) 20.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 12.7%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.9%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HerePas-de-Calais — 12ème circonscription 61.9%20.2%12.7%2.0%
Provincial averagePas-de-Calais 53.2% +8.8 20.8% −0.6 13.9% −1.2 2.2% −0.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +26.0 29.5% −9.3 20.6% −7.8 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+41.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bruno BILDE Elected RN and allies 33,944 59.2 —
Alain BAVAY Left (NFP) 12,059 21.0 —
Steve BOSSART Centre (Ensemble) 10,178 17.8 —
Régis SCHEENAERTS Far left 1,121 2.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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