Riding profile

Pas-de-Calais — 11ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Pas-de-Calais

The question

Pas-de-Calais — 11ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Pas-de-Calais — 11ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Pas-de-Calais, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 62% vote share, against 26% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marine LE PEN

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
36.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 62.2%
  • Left (NFP) 25.9%
  • LR and allies 6.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 2.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HerePas-de-Calais — 11ème circonscription 62.2%25.9%6.0%2.6%
Provincial averagePas-de-Calais 53.2% +9.0 20.8% +5.1 9.6% −3.7 13.9% −11.3
National averageFrance 36.0% +26.2 29.5% −3.6 12.2% −6.3 20.6% −18.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+36.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marine LE PEN Elected RN and allies 32,681 58.0 —
Samira LAAL Left (NFP) 14,666 26.1 —
Dorian LAMY Centre (Ensemble) 4,269 7.6 —
Michel LANOY LR and allies 2,676 4.8 —
Geoffrey FOURNIER RN and allies 813 1.4 —
Dominique GAI Far left 786 1.4 —
Gautier WEINMANN Left (NFP) 417 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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