Riding profile

Nord — 17ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Nord

The question

Nord — 17ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Nord — 17ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 51% vote share, against 29% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Thierry TESSON

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 50.7%
  • Left (NFP) 28.9%
  • LR and allies 9.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 7.6%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereNord — 17ème circonscription 50.7%28.9%9.2%7.6%
Provincial averageNord 42.0% +8.7 28.2% +0.8 12.7% −3.6 19.0% −11.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +14.7 29.5% −0.5 12.2% −3.1 20.6% −13.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+21.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Thierry TESSON Elected RN and allies 21,803 47.9
Frédéric CHÉREAU Left (NFP) 13,575 29.8
Guillaume HONORÉ Centre (Ensemble) 5,739 12.6
Loick BROUAZIN LR and allies 3,627 8.0
Cédric FLUCKIGER Far left 751 1.6
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next