Riding profile

Nord — 16ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Nord

The question

Nord — 16ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Nord — 16ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 56% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Matthieu MARCHIO

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
28.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 55.9%
  • Left (NFP) 27.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 11.2%
  • Far left 2.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Far left
HereNord — 16ème circonscription 55.9%27.5%11.2%2.2%
Provincial averageNord 42.0% +13.9 28.2% −0.7 19.0% −7.8 1.5% +0.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +19.9 29.5% −2.0 20.6% −9.3 1.1% +1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+28.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Matthieu MARCHIO Elected RN and allies 26,608 53.1 —
Alain BRUNEEL Left (NFP) 14,199 28.4 —
François CRESTA Centre (Ensemble) 8,135 16.2 —
Éric PECQUEUR Far left 1,145 2.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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