Riding profile
Nord — 2ème circonscription
The question
Nord — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?
Editorial read
Nord — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 46% vote share, against 25% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ugo BERNALICIS
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNord — 2ème circonscription | 46.3% | 24.8% | 15.7% | 9.0% |
| Provincial averageNord | 28.2% +18.2 | 42.0% −17.2 | 19.0% −3.3 | 12.7% −3.7 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +16.8 | 36.0% −11.2 | 20.6% −4.8 | 12.2% −3.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ugo BERNALICIS Elected | Left (NFP) | 26,491 | 47.3 | — |
| Philippe GUÉRARD | RN and allies | 12,256 | 21.9 | — |
| Violette SALANON | Centre (Ensemble) | 11,630 | 20.8 | — |
| Caroline BOISARD-VANNIER | LR and allies | 4,378 | 7.8 | — |
| Pascale ROUGÉE | Far left | 645 | 1.1 | — |
| Claire GUENON | Others | 385 | 0.7 | — |
| Etienne TESTART | Far left | 208 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Nord — 7ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Nord — 9ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Nord — 8ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 6ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Nord — 10ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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