Riding profile
Nord — 10ème circonscription
The question
Nord — 10ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Nord — 10ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 38% vote share, against 31% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Gérald DARMANIN
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
Centre (Ensemble)
Toss-up
- Probability
- 80%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.7
- P(close race)
- 39%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Centre (Ensemble) | Left (NFP) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNord — 10ème circonscription | 37.6% | 30.9% | 23.9% | 4.4% |
| Provincial averageNord | 42.0% −4.3 | 19.0% +11.9 | 28.2% −4.2 | 12.7% −8.3 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +1.7 | 20.6% +10.3 | 29.5% −5.5 | 12.2% −7.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gérald DARMANIN Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 17,512 | 36.0 | — |
| Bastien VERBRUGGHE | RN and allies | 16,675 | 34.3 | — |
| Leslie MORTREUX | Left (NFP) | 12,065 | 24.8 | — |
| Jérôme GARCIA | LR and allies | 1,447 | 3.0 | — |
| Christophe CHARLON | Far left | 535 | 1.1 | — |
| Gustave VIGUIE-DESPLACES | RN and allies | 249 | 0.5 | — |
| Marcellin BRAZON | LR and allies | 118 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Nord — 9ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Nord — 8ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 4ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Nord — 7ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Toss-upOpen →
- Nord — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next