Riding profile

Nord — 8ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Nord

The question

Nord — 8ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Nord — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 47% vote share, against 34% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

David GUIRAUD

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.8
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 47.5%
  • RN and allies 33.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 11.1%
  • Sovereignists 2.9%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.7%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Sovereignists
HereNord — 8ème circonscription 47.5%33.6%11.1%2.9%
Provincial averageNord 28.2% +19.3 42.0% −8.3 19.0% −8.0 2.2% +0.6
National averageFrance 29.5% +18.0 36.0% −2.3 20.6% −9.5 1.6% +1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+13.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David GUIRAUD Elected Left (NFP) 17,405 48.5 —
Ethan LEYS RN and allies 11,051 30.8 —
Tarik MEKKI Centre (Ensemble) 5,766 16.1 —
Maël CAMERLYNCK Sovereignists 1,011 2.8 —
Françoise DELBARRE Far left 652 1.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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