Riding profile

Nord — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Nord

The question

Nord — 9ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Nord — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Violette SPILLEBOUT

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
55%
Mean margin (pts)
1.3
P(close race)
88%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 30.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 28.9%
  • RN and allies 24.5%
  • LR and allies 13.4%
  • Others 2.3%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereNord — 9ème circonscription 30.2%28.9%24.5%13.4%
Provincial averageNord 28.2% +2.1 19.0% +9.9 42.0% −17.5 12.7% +0.7
National averageFrance 29.5% +0.7 20.6% +8.3 36.0% −11.5 12.2% +1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Violette SPILLEBOUT Elected Centre (Ensemble) 20,620 34.0 —
Odile VIDAL-SAGNIER Left (NFP) 18,869 31.1 —
Christine LANDRU RN and allies 12,533 20.7 —
Alice POGAM LR and allies 5,572 9.2 —
Charles DELAVENNE LR and allies 1,832 3.0 —
Valérie TALPAERT RN and allies 561 0.9 —
Chantal SARAZIN Far left 477 0.8 —
Frédéric GRUZON Others 161 0.3 —
Mathias DHELIN Far left 4 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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