Riding profile

Nord — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Nord

The question

Nord — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Nord — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 55% vote share, against 21% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Aurélien LE COQ

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
34.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 55.4%
  • RN and allies 21.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 12.5%
  • LR and allies 7.6%
  • Others 3.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereNord — 1ère circonscription 55.4%21.1%12.5%7.6%
Provincial averageNord 28.2% +27.2 42.0% −20.9 19.0% −6.5 12.7% −5.2
National averageFrance 29.5% +25.9 36.0% −14.9 20.6% −8.1 12.2% −4.7

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+34.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Aurélien LE COQ Elected Left (NFP) 17,800 44.2 —
Carole LECLERCQ RN and allies 7,298 18.1 —
Vanessa DUHAMEL Centre (Ensemble) 7,055 17.5 —
Amy BAH Left (NFP) 3,551 8.8 —
Brice LAURET LR and allies 1,951 4.8 —
Maxime LEGRAND Left (NFP) 1,169 2.9 —
Allison MARINHO LR and allies 610 1.5 —
Audric ALEXANDRE Others 345 0.9 —
Pierre MADELAIN Far left 217 0.5 —
Michel LAURENÇOT Left (NFP) 199 0.5 —
Verena PRIEM Others 58 0.1 —
Frédéric CHAOUAT Others 14 0.0 —
Adel BOUSALHAM Left (NFP) 1 0.0 —
Line MARAGE Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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