Riding profile

Nord — 7ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Nord

The question

Nord — 7ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Nord — 7ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 33% vote share, against 32% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Félicie GERARD

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
50%
Mean margin (pts)
1.1
P(close race)
92%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 32.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 31.6%
  • Left (NFP) 31.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Others
HereNord — 7ème circonscription 32.6%31.6%31.3%2.0%
Provincial averageNord 42.0% −9.4 19.0% +12.6 28.2% +3.1 3.6% −1.6
National averageFrance 36.0% −3.3 20.6% +11.0 29.5% +1.8 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Félicie GERARD Elected Centre (Ensemble) 17,168 36.7 —
Karima CHOUIA Left (NFP) 15,053 32.2 —
Céline SAYAH RN and allies 13,163 28.1 —
Jean-Sébastien Paul Louis WILLEM RN and allies 763 1.6 —
Nicolas SCHUURMAN Far left 617 1.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next