Riding profile

Nord — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Nord

The question

Nord — 4ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Nord — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the united left, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Brigitte LISO

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
46%
Mean margin (pts)
1.0
P(close race)
83%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 29.6%
  • Left (NFP) 28.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 26.2%
  • LR and allies 12.5%
  • Others 2.2%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereNord — 4ème circonscription 29.6%28.7%26.2%12.5%
Provincial averageNord 42.0% −12.4 28.2% +0.5 19.0% +7.2 12.7% −0.2
National averageFrance 36.0% −6.3 29.5% −0.8 20.6% +5.6 12.2% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Brigitte LISO Elected Centre (Ensemble) 21,494 31.3 —
Charlotte BRUN Left (NFP) 20,301 29.6 —
Anne MORAND RN and allies 17,832 26.0 —
Sébastien LEBLANC LR and allies 6,461 9.4 —
Nicolas LE NEINDRE LR and allies 1,330 1.9 —
Fatima ABDELLAOUI Far left 539 0.8 —
Patrick JARDIN RN and allies 533 0.8 —
Franck BOYAVAL Others 144 0.2 —
Damien SCALI Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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