Riding profile

Nord — 11ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Nord

The question

Nord — 11ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Nord — 11ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 38% vote share, against 34% for the RN and its allies, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Roger VICOT

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Competitive

Probability
91%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
18%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 37.5%
  • RN and allies 34.3%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 22.9%
  • Far left 2.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Far left
HereNord — 11ème circonscription 37.5%34.3%22.9%2.0%
Provincial averageNord 28.2% +9.4 42.0% −7.7 19.0% +3.8 1.5% +0.5
National averageFrance 29.5% +8.1 36.0% −1.7 20.6% +2.3 1.1% +0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Roger VICOT Elected Left (NFP) 22,809 38.5
Maxime MOULIN RN and allies 18,650 31.5
Ingrid BRULANT-FORTIN Centre (Ensemble) 16,559 27.9
Carole BAILLEUL Far left 778 1.3
Jonathan WILSON Far left 450 0.8
Robin COUPIGNY Far left 17 0.0
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next