Riding profile

Nord — 19ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Nord

The question

Nord — 19ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Nord — 19ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 61% vote share, against 21% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sébastien CHENU

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 61.0%
  • Left (NFP) 21.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 10.1%
  • Others 4.4%
  • Far left 2.2%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereNord — 19ème circonscription 61.0%21.0%10.1%4.4%
Provincial averageNord 42.0% +19.0 28.2% −7.2 19.0% −8.9 3.6% +0.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +25.0 29.5% −8.5 20.6% −10.5 3.9% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+40.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sébastien CHENU Elected RN and allies 27,592 58.3
Cédric BRUN Left (NFP) 10,337 21.9
Franck WATELET Centre (Ensemble) 7,136 15.1
Djemi DRICI Others 1,150 2.4
Cécile BOURLET Far left 1,098 2.3
Last model run
Cycle
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