Riding profile
Nord — 19ème circonscription
The question
Nord — 19ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Nord — 19ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 61% vote share, against 21% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sébastien CHENU
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 40.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNord — 19ème circonscription | 61.0% | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.4% |
| Provincial averageNord | 42.0% +19.0 | 28.2% −7.2 | 19.0% −8.9 | 3.6% +0.8 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +25.0 | 29.5% −8.5 | 20.6% −10.5 | 3.9% +0.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sébastien CHENU Elected | RN and allies | 27,592 | 58.3 | — |
| Cédric BRUN | Left (NFP) | 10,337 | 21.9 | — |
| Franck WATELET | Centre (Ensemble) | 7,136 | 15.1 | — |
| Djemi DRICI | Others | 1,150 | 2.4 | — |
| Cécile BOURLET | Far left | 1,098 | 2.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Nord — 20ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 16ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 18ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 21ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 17ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 6ème circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) CompetitiveOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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