Riding profile

Nord — 18ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Nord

The question

Nord — 18ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Nord — 18ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Nord, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 53% vote share, against 32% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Alexandre DUFOSSET

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 52.6%
  • LR and allies 32.4%
  • Left (NFP) 11.5%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereNord — 18ème circonscription 52.6%32.4%11.5%1.9%
Provincial averageNord 42.0% +10.7 12.7% +19.7 28.2% −16.6 3.6% −1.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +16.7 12.2% +20.2 29.5% −17.9 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+20.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alexandre DUFOSSET Elected RN and allies 29,404 52.5
Nicolas SIEGLER LR and allies 18,434 32.9
Benoît MARECHAL Left (NFP) 7,230 12.9
Nadine REYNAERT Far left 930 1.7
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next