Riding profile
Aisne — 2ème circonscription
The question
Aisne — 2ème circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Aisne — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Aisne, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 49% vote share, against 35% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Julien DIVE
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.7
- P(close race)
- 2%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAisne — 2ème circonscription | 48.6% | 35.0% | 12.8% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageAisne | 55.9% −7.3 | 9.0% +26.0 | 20.8% −7.9 | 2.1% −0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +12.7 | 12.2% +22.8 | 29.5% −16.7 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philippe TORRE | RN and allies | 21,496 | 47.1 | — |
| Julien DIVE Elected | LR and allies | 16,288 | 35.7 | — |
| Anne-Sophie DUJANCOURT | Left (NFP) | 6,511 | 14.3 | — |
| Didier KACZMAREK | RN and allies | 561 | 1.2 | — |
| Corinne BÉCOURT | Far left | 497 | 1.1 | — |
| Anne ZANDITÉNAS | Far left | 322 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Nord — 18ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aisne — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aisne — 3ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Nord — 19ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Somme — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Oise — 6ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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