Riding profile

Oise — 6ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Oise

The question

Oise — 6ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Oise — 6ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Oise, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 50% vote share, against 28% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Michel GUINIOT

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 49.9%
  • LR and allies 28.3%
  • Left (NFP) 18.7%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereOise — 6ème circonscription 49.9%28.3%18.7%1.9%
Provincial averageOise 47.9% +2.0 18.6% +9.7 21.0% −2.3 2.1% −0.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +13.9 12.2% +16.1 29.5% −10.8 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+21.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Michel GUINIOT Elected RN and allies 23,402 47.9
Daniel LECA LR and allies 11,207 22.9
Baptiste DE FRESSE DE MONVAL Left (NFP) 9,999 20.5
Nathalie CHARRUAU LR and allies 2,766 5.7
Guy-Eric IMBERT RN and allies 857 1.8
Jean-Marc ISKIN Far left 648 1.3
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next