Riding profile
Oise — 6ème circonscription
The question
Oise — 6ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Oise — 6ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Oise, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 50% vote share, against 28% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Michel GUINIOT
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | LR and allies | Left (NFP) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOise — 6ème circonscription | 49.9% | 28.3% | 18.7% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOise | 47.9% +2.0 | 18.6% +9.7 | 21.0% −2.3 | 2.1% −0.2 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +13.9 | 12.2% +16.1 | 29.5% −10.8 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel GUINIOT Elected | RN and allies | 23,402 | 47.9 | — |
| Daniel LECA | LR and allies | 11,207 | 22.9 | — |
| Baptiste DE FRESSE DE MONVAL | Left (NFP) | 9,999 | 20.5 | — |
| Nathalie CHARRUAU | LR and allies | 2,766 | 5.7 | — |
| Guy-Eric IMBERT | RN and allies | 857 | 1.8 | — |
| Jean-Marc ISKIN | Far left | 648 | 1.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Oise — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Somme — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aisne — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Oise — 4ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Oise — 7ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aisne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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