Riding profile
Aisne — 4ème circonscription
The question
Aisne — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?
Editorial read
Aisne — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Aisne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 59% vote share, against 19% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
José BEAURAIN
Sits with RN and allies
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 39.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAisne — 4ème circonscription | 58.9% | 19.0% | 17.1% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageAisne | 55.9% +3.0 | 20.8% −1.8 | 16.9% +0.3 | 2.1% −0.1 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +22.9 | 29.5% −10.5 | 20.6% −3.4 | 3.9% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| José BEAURAIN Elected | RN and allies | 25,913 | 55.0 | — |
| Benjamin MAURICE | Centre (Ensemble) | 10,448 | 22.2 | — |
| Lola PRIÉ | Left (NFP) | 9,335 | 19.8 | — |
| Flora BOUILLAGUET | Far left | 832 | 1.8 | — |
| Philippe GOUJARD | RN and allies | 553 | 1.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Aisne — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Oise — 6ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aisne — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Oise — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Aisne — 1ère circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Seine-et-Marne — 6ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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