Riding profile

Aisne — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Aisne

The question

Aisne — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Aisne — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Aisne, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 56% vote share, against 19% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jocelyn DESSIGNY

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
36.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 55.8%
  • Left (NFP) 18.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 15.7%
  • LR and allies 6.3%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereAisne — 5ème circonscription 55.8%18.9%15.7%6.3%
Provincial averageAisne 55.9% −0.1 20.8% −1.9 16.9% −1.2 9.0% −2.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +19.8 29.5% −10.6 20.6% −4.9 12.2% −5.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+36.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jocelyn DESSIGNY Elected RN and allies 27,670 53.1
Jeanne ROUSSEL Centre (Ensemble) 10,811 20.7
Karim BELAÏD Left (NFP) 10,272 19.7
Jade GILQUIN LR and allies 2,665 5.1
Yona MERBOUCHE Far left 721 1.4
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next