Riding profile

Seine-et-Marne — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-et-Marne

The question

Seine-et-Marne — 5ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Seine-et-Marne — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-et-Marne, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 26% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Franck RIESTER

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
18.2
P(close race)
7%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 44.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 26.3%
  • Left (NFP) 23.6%
  • Others 2.5%
  • Far left 1.7%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Others
HereSeine-et-Marne — 5ème circonscription 44.6%26.3%23.6%2.5%
Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne 35.7% +8.8 22.3% +4.0 31.1% −7.4 2.5%
National averageFrance 36.0% +8.6 20.6% +5.8 29.5% −5.8 3.9% −1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+18.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Philippe FONTANA RN and allies 23,820 41.8 —
Franck RIESTER Elected Centre (Ensemble) 17,923 31.4 —
Laurie CAENBERGS Left (NFP) 13,985 24.5 —
Pascal QUENOT Far left 1,011 1.8 —
Rudolf LARREGAIN-FELLER Others 288 0.5 —
Michèle DURAND Sovereignists 2 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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