Riding profile

Seine-et-Marne — 7ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-et-Marne

The question

Seine-et-Marne — 7ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Seine-et-Marne — 7ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-et-Marne, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 40% vote share, against 32% for the united left, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Ersilia SOUDAIS

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability: 84%
Mean margin (pts): 7.8
P(close race): 31%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 39.7%
Left (NFP) 31.9%
Centre (Ensemble) 22.9%
Others 2.0%
Sovereignists 1.3%
LR and allies 1.2%
Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	Others
HereSeine-et-Marne — 7ème circonscription	39.7%	31.9%	22.9%	2.0%
Provincial averageSeine-et-Marne	35.7% +4.0	31.1% +0.9	22.3% +0.7	2.5% −0.5
National averageFrance	36.0% +3.7	29.5% +2.4	20.6% +2.4	3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+7.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Agnès LAFFITE	RN and allies	20,179	35.7	—
Ersilia SOUDAIS Elected	Left (NFP)	18,557	32.9	—
Christian ROBACHE	Centre (Ensemble)	10,611	18.8	—
Rodrigue KOKOUENDO	Centre (Ensemble)	3,345	5.9	—
Naïma MOGHIR	Centre (Ensemble)	1,872	3.3	—
Mathilde YU-YUENG	Sovereignists	678	1.2	—
Yannick CARLINO	RN and allies	657	1.2	—
Gabrielle FRIJA	Far left	587	1.0	—
Maria LOURO	LR and allies	3	0.0	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next