Riding profile

Seine-Saint-Denis — 12ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-Saint-Denis

The question

Seine-Saint-Denis — 12ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Seine-Saint-Denis — 12ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Saint-Denis, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 44% vote share, against 30% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jérôme LEGAVRE

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 13.8
P(close race): 1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Left (NFP) 44.1%
RN and allies 30.3%
LR and allies 14.1%
Centre (Ensemble) 7.6%
Others 2.0%
Far left 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	LR and allies	Centre (Ensemble)
HereSeine-Saint-Denis — 12ème circonscription	44.1%	30.3%	14.1%	7.6%
Provincial averageSeine-Saint-Denis	58.8% −14.7	19.9% +10.4	11.9% +2.2	7.0% +0.6
National averageFrance	29.5% +14.6	36.0% −5.7	12.2% +1.8	20.6% −13.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+13.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Jérôme LEGAVRE Elected	Left (NFP)	17,566	45.1	—
Jean-François PERIER	RN and allies	10,140	26.0	—
Xavier LEMOINE	LR and allies	5,016	12.9	—
Virginie ROITMAN	Centre (Ensemble)	4,893	12.6	—
Francis DIJOS	RN and allies	546	1.4	—
Amal AISSAOUI	Far left	503	1.3	—
Dominique VINCENOT	Far left	273	0.7	—
Didier MARTINOT	Far left	0	0.0	—
Serjan KIRMA	Others	0	0.0	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next