Riding profile

Seine-Saint-Denis — 11ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Seine-Saint-Denis

The question

Seine-Saint-Denis — 11ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Seine-Saint-Denis — 11ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Seine-Saint-Denis, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 62% vote share, against 22% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Clémentine AUTAIN

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 61.6%
  • RN and allies 21.8%
  • LR and allies 8.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 5.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereSeine-Saint-Denis — 11ème circonscription 61.6%21.8%8.1%5.5%
Provincial averageSeine-Saint-Denis 58.8% +2.8 19.9% +1.9 11.9% −3.8 7.0% −1.5
National averageFrance 29.5% +32.1 36.0% −14.2 12.2% −4.1 20.6% −15.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+39.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Clémentine AUTAIN Elected Left (NFP) 22,209 62.6 —
Renée JOLY RN and allies 6,694 18.9 —
Fayza BASINI Centre (Ensemble) 3,702 10.4 —
Max MARAN LR and allies 1,658 4.7 —
Kahina NÄIT-KACI LR and allies 801 2.3 —
Charlotte SÉCHET Far left 388 1.1 —
Lucien BELZANE Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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