Riding profile

Val-d'Oise — 9ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Val-d'Oise

The question

Val-d'Oise — 9ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Val-d'Oise — 9ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Val-d'Oise, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 40% vote share, against 34% for the RN and its allies, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Arnaud LE GALL

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Competitive

Probability
86%
Mean margin (pts)
5.5
P(close race)
27%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 39.8%
  • RN and allies 34.3%
  • LR and allies 12.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 9.6%
  • Others 2.4%
  • Far left 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereVal-d'Oise — 9ème circonscription 39.8%34.3%12.5%9.6%
Provincial averageVal-d'Oise 39.7% 29.6% +4.7 10.4% +2.2 17.3% −7.7
National averageFrance 29.5% +10.3 36.0% −1.7 12.2% +0.3 20.6% −11.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Arnaud LE GALL Elected Left (NFP) 17,157 40.7 —
Agnès MARION RN and allies 12,872 30.6 —
Elisa DEMIR Centre (Ensemble) 6,149 14.6 —
Anthony ARCIERO LR and allies 4,789 11.4 —
Danièle HANRYON Far left 621 1.5 —
David SAID RN and allies 381 0.9 —
Nsimba WASSA Others 157 0.4 —
Mohamed NAJIB Others 0 0.0 —
Vanessa RONCHINI Far left 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next